What are conditionals?

Definition. Conditionals are event futures whose payout is the value of a datapoint (asset price, index, KPI) conditional on the outcome of an event.

Each conditional market has one branch per mutually exclusive outcome. The branch price reflects the market's forecast of the asset's value if that outcome occurs.

Examples

One example is a BTC conditional on a Fed cut, hold, or hike outcome.

One example is an S&P 500 conditional on a candidate A win, candidate B win, or candidate C win outcome.

One example is an AAPL conditional on an earnings beat, inline, or miss outcome.

How it works

• Shared collateral: One deposit supports all branches simultaneously.

• Deterministic resolution: Non-realized branches are cancelled; the realized branch settles to the observed asset price.

• No liquidations: Positions are fully collateralized by conditional USDC within each branch.

Trading conditionals

Your goal is to form your own forecast of the asset's price in each outcome branch, compare it with the branch's current price, and decide whether to go long or short.

See How to trade for a step-by-step walkthrough.