What are Conditionals?

Conditionals bridge the utility of event futures contracts to the broader financial system.

Definition. Conditionals are event futures whose payout is the value of a datapoint (price, index, KPI) conditional on the outcome of an event.

Where prediction markets price probabilities and options price volatility over time, Conditionals price every branch of the future “as if it happens.”

Examples

• BTC conditional on Fed cut/hold/hike

• S&P 500 conditional on candidate A wins/candidate B wins/candidate C wins

• AAPL conditional on beat/inline/miss earnings expectations

Features

• Speculate on event-driven volatility: Take views on pre-/post-event dispersion and magnitude by trading on multiple branches, without complex derivatives.

• Event-aware hedging: Trade “BTC if Cut” vs “BTC if Hike” exposure directly. Conditionals offer event-contingent insurance for asset holders, with minimal basis risk.

• Shared collateral: One deposit supports all branches simultaneously.

• Deterministic resolution: Non-realized branches are cancelled; the realized branch settles to the observed asset price.

Benefits

• Avoid liquidations & volatility arising from macro events and prints

• Trade the magnitude of events, not just their probabilities

• Hedge event risk without the complexity and basis risk of options

• Capital efficient inventory event risk hedging for market makers

Use Cases

• Event hedge for holders: BTC holders can short BTC|Hike to hedge their down side risk in case of a hike.

• Macro branch portfolios: Build CPI/NFP “if-then” baskets: Long BHP|CPI>consensus, Long AAPL|CPI<consensus.

• Political exposure: Trade SPX|Candidate wins or USD|Policy passes to isolate decision risk.

• M&A/regulatory outcomes: Stock|Deal approved/rejected or Token|ETF approved/denied.

• Structured overlays: Create portfolio guards such as SP500|Recession declared